SPCX listed options debut today on Cboe into a $1.75T tape and gamma-squeeze chatter to $400. WTI rebounded to $80 after a 3.7% drop as Trump targets a Sunday signing. RKLB ran 7% on a Cantor upgrade into June 22 Nasdaq-100 entry while ASTS/LUNR/RDW kept underperforming. Here is what hit today and what the desk is doing into FOMC and triple witching.
SPCX extended to $180 on day two. WTI cracked 5% to the 200-day on the US–Iran peace deal. The space sympathy basket already split into winners and roadkill. Here is what happened to Friday's setup, and what I am watching from here.
SPCX printed the largest IPO in history and closed up 19% on day one. Over the same weekend, the US and Iran moved a draft accord to the one-yard line and crude started bleeding the Hormuz risk premium. Two of the most crowded macro trades just changed character at the same time.
Oracle just put up 93% Cloud Infrastructure growth and added $85B of backlog in a single quarter. Supermicro is raising $7B to fund $39B of AI server orders. The AI trade is no longer a hype trade — it is a buildout.
Momentum is getting selective, speculative themes are cracking, and traders are rotating out of crowded risk trades while looking for safer relative strength. Today's tape favors discipline over excitement.
The book is well oversubscribed and they are reportedly closing it Wednesday post-close. This is the setup I flagged in May — and the print is going to drag every space name on the tape with it.
Jobs were strong enough to keep the Fed on hold, but not strong enough to kill risk appetite. CPI, OPEC, WWDC, ORCL, BoC, ECB, UK GDP and China inflation all land this week — and almost every part of the soft-landing trade gets tested.
Sector data shows institutional capital quietly leaving AI and crypto-related names while rotating into Healthcare, Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples. The leadership change is showing up in the tape before the headlines.
Risk assets cracked together on Friday. SPY broke its week-long shelf, every high-beta basket on my rotation model flipped to sell, and Bitcoin gave back 16% on the week. Here is how I am reading it.
